Know Thy Enemy: Toronto Blue Jays

It’s that time of year once again, child: time to learn that’s asses we ve

obtained ta kick. Famed Chinese basic and thinker Sun Tzu once stated, If you understand the enemy and recognize yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred fights. I m uncertain what he especially would’ve said regarding the result of 162-plus battles, however I’d like to assume it would ve been a comparable belief.

Throughout the winter, we below at OTM have actually tried- and will certainly remain to attempt- to maintain you fine individuals in the loophole on that particular last part of Tzu’s quote: knowing on your own, or in our situation the Boston Red Sox. For the new group, however, we additionally like to dive into the previous fifty percent of those words of knowledge: understanding the adversary.

As we move closer and closer to Opening Day, allowed’s begin our sneak peek of American League opponents with a trip to Canada: the future 51st state, depending upon who you ask.

What’s This Team &

rsquo; s Offer? In spite of all of the activity in-and-out of the division among the Red Sox and the Yankees; in spite of the continued youth motion- and continued dissatisfaction in October- going on in Birdland; and in spite of the * motions vaguely * everything happening with the Rays organization currently in time, I assume you might make the argument that the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the most fascinating AL East group going into the 2025 period.At site sixmanrotation.com from Our Articles

This is a club that had just lately experienced the movements of their own youth movement, one that started at the conclusion of the Joey Bats/Josh Donaldson Era of the mid 2010’s. Men like very first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette rose up with the farm system and became the faces of the group in that time. Procurements of professionals such as outfielder George Springer and starting pitcher Kevin Gausman were made in the very early 2020’s in an effort to press the Jays towards the front of the line

in the AL. As a whole, those efforts kinda functioned- at least in the regular season. Toronto won 90-plus games in the two years following the COVID-shortened period (they can be found in fourth area in the 2021 AL East race in spite of publishing 91 victories) and also received October baseball in 2023. Nothing bad happened to them in any one of those postseason video games, and every person lived happily ever before after.

Despite past successes and the reality that a bona fide All-Star and one of the most preferred players in the video game got on the roster, 2025 marked a big downturn for the Torontonians. Their achilles’ heels were revealed by their American associates, and the team took L after L after L after L last year. However I’m getting sidetracked, sufficient about Drake and OVO.

The Blue Jays dropped from 89 success in 2023 to just 74 in 2025. That year-to-year drop was worse than their loss from 89 success to 76 between 2016 and 2017, which you can indicate as the genesis of this whole reconstruct project. It was heaven Jays’ even worse single year slump because 2004, when they won just 67 video games contrasted to the 86 video games they won the year prior. Injuries (Bichette, outfielder Dalton Varsho, and reliever Jordan Romano were all suspended at different times in 2025), bullpen problems (their cumulative bullpen period of 4.82 was the second-worst in the league), and a whole lot of absolutely nothing on infraction outside of Vladdy Jr.’s outstanding project( just two other Toronto players that played in greater than 90 games in 2015 had an OPS+ north of 100, and neither of them are with the team to begin 2025) doomed the Blue Jays.

That leads us back to the questioned poised from the jump: what, specifically, is this team’

deal? I m sitting right here creating this on Monday, February 17. It’s President s Day right here in the States, but in’Canada it s Vladdy Expansion Target date Day (I’m not exactly sure if Canadians get sweat off for that). All Blue Jays players need to report to Springtime Training by Tuesday, and Guerrero- who’s about to get in the final year of his agreement with Toronto- has actually made it clear that he won’t be bargaining an expansion when he obtains the training program in Dunedin underway. Bichette can additionally stroll as soon as 2025 is in the books. Heaven Jays have some attracting children that could make waves this season, yet they additionally have maturing professionals whose productivity going forward is doubtful.

Basically: this team’s offer is that they re at a crossroads.

Franchise keystones could be passed the time we write the 2026 version of this article, but those keystones could rebound (or, in Guerrero’s instance, continue their hot touch) in the new year. Could they get right back into the mix in the uber-competitive AL East? Are they staring down the possibility of, to freely price estimate Bono, dreaming everything up again?

How Excellent Are They?

I can’t state’without a doubt, which s what makes them fascinating. I lean more in the direction of not actually, all that good yet there could be a lot of variation here.

Vladdy’s absolutely good, let s just obtain that out of the way initially. He shattered 30 homers and had 199 hits en route to posting a. 323/.396/.544 line in 2025. Almost every little thing you’d like to see under the hood was elite: hard hit rate, barrel price, strikeout rate, xwOBA, you name it. He’s fairly good at hitting spherical items with a club.

The rest of the infraction’s quality leaves … allow s call it room for interpretation, to be charitable. Bichette was generally an occupation.300 hitter (it was.299, I’ll round up)before his 2025 period was hindered by injuries. I assume he’ll need to get better if this team has any kind of ambitions of playing baseball deep into the fall.

Springer has traditionally been a really strong player on top of the schedule, however his OPS (.907,.814,.732,.674) and OPS+ (141, 132, 102, 92) have both fallen in annually because signing with Toronto in early 2021, with his top quality of contact metrics signifying a comparable drop-off. Entering his age-35 period, can he transform it around?

Switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander gets in the layer this year after he signed a five-year, $92.5 million agreement with Toronto this winter season. His 44 homers in 2014 were impressive, and while that result may not be lasting, he makes the schedule simply a bit deeper. The team might truly use that, especially if they’re going additionally to depend on the similarity young Will Wagner (the kid of soon-to-be-HOFer Billy Wagner, continuing Toronto’s practice of obtaining the children of ex-MLB players) and catcher Alejandro Kirk (that’s failed to hit 100 OPS+ in the past 2 periods considering that his 2022 period where he logged a 127 OPS+ en route to an All-Star selection). FanGraphs is projecting those latter 2 people to sign up wRC+ marks north of 110, so that’s something to be confident regarding if you’re a Blue Jays fan. I wouldn t expect the very same from the newly-acquired infielder Andres Gimenez, but he does supply a very steady handwear cover on defense.

Kevin Gausman jobs to be atop the turning once again in 2025. While his 3.83 age last year definitely wasn’t bad in itself, it was his worst since 2019. He started out less batters on a rate basis in 2025 compared to year’s past, his hard hit price has ticked up in the last pair of periods, and his predicted age in 2025 (4.71) was nearly a complete run greater than his real period. Maybe he’s a guy that can endure and out-perform his anticipated numbers- I think he does have that possibility, given his record and offered the truth that his 21.4% K-rate appears to be an outlier approximately this point. If he misses more bats and strikes much more men out, he must be fine, even if he does give up some loud call now and then. He’s as great a wager as any person to provide substantial quantity on the mound, also.

Jose Berrios remains to be one of the weirdest bottles in MLB. Considering that 2019, he hasn’t had an anticipated period far better than 4.06, and yet his real period because time has actually just gone north of an even 4.00 when. His 3.60 period in 2015 contrasted to his 4.74 expected age is once again evidence that this game makes no feeling. He doesn’t start out enough people and he’s quit a damn near 50% difficult hit rate in 2 of his last three seasons. I have no idea just how he remains to stroll this limited rope, which is precisely why he’s most likely mosting likely to be fine in 2025.

Chris Bassitt goes back to the turning and is likewise joined by future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, creating the Unction part of the pitching staff.

Bassitt can do a great work of eating innings, however similar to Berrios, those high quality of call numbers are not motivating. Scherzer’s got some question marks entering his 1 year manage the group (notably: can he stay healthy and can he restrict several of the tough call himself?), but a minimum of he’s still generating some swing-and-miss things. Bassitt’s commonly outstanding stroll rate raised to 9.2% in 2025, while his 40.9% ground ball rate was the most affordable of his profession. If he can maintain the walks in check, maybe Bassitt can recuperate.

28-year-old Bowden Francis is the wild card in the rotation. In his 140.2 innings pitched in the bigs, Francis has a sub-1.00 WHIP thanks in huge component to the reality that he rarely releases freebies; his 5.4% walk rate remained in the 89th percentile last season. He already does a fine work of limiting tough call, and he can truly boost this rotation if he has the ability to effectively release that curveball of his; the run value of his contour dropped from 5 in 2023 to -8 in 2025. If he can create some even more motion on that particular breaking pitch, he’d all of a sudden have 3 strong offerings between that, his heater, and his splitter.

Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia have been generated (or brought back, in Yimi’s circumstances)to reinforce the alleviation pitching. As stated previously, Toronto is gon na require em. Hoffman has been exceptional in the past 2 years while Garcia got the WHIP listed below 1.00 in 2025, however is that sufficient to boost the back end of the pitching team?

The Majority Of Nice Player: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Easy telephone call here. It s so incredible that a brand-new generation of followers reaches appreciate a right-handed striking titan called Vladdy. As a baseball fan in general, he’s a blast to view. That doesn’t like to see an absolute hill of a male struck taters? Least Likable Gamer: Additionally Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

To answer the concern that I simply positioned: me, I put on’t like to see an outright mountain of a male hit taters if it’s against the Red Sox. Vladdy Jr. has been recognized to do that, unfortunately. In his 87 job video games against Boston, he’s slashing.294/.370/.522 with 17 homers and 75 RBI. Maybe Craig Breslow provides him a contract following weekend break just so he doesn’t obtain the possibility to slug against the Red Sox?

Set up Against the Red Sox

Boston players will require to have their keys ready for an early period set in Toronto ranging from April 29 through May 1. The Sox head back to the Rogers Centre from September 23 through 25 for the second-to-last collection of the season. On the other hand, heaven Jays pay sees to Fenway Park between April 7 and 10 as well as from June 27 with 29. It continues to be to be seen if any one of those games will certainly be delayed as a result of lighting and resumed weeks later.

Period Forecast

2025 marks a critical year for the Toronto Blue Jays- a season that might determine the organization’s direction for several years to come. Can they do at a high degree? Sure, I’d claim it s definitely within the world of feasible end results. But if that’s going to occur, they require a great deal to go right. Vladdy’s got ta continue his hot streak during his contract year. Bichette needs to recover in an agreement year of his very own. Other parts of the lineup have to step up. The turning needs to jointly out-perform their consistently-iffy peripherals. The bullpen, outside of their brand-new procurements, needs to tighten up.

It’s possible that it comes together for&them- baseball s an unusual sporting activity- yet what are the odds of that taking place? Not so fat, I’d claim. Mix that together with the reality that the AL East might once more be more like the AL Beast in 2025, and I put on’t see an evident path to 270 for Toronto (incorrect nation’s electoral system, I know).

I wouldn’t state the Blue Jays are a negative group- I just wear’t think 2025 is their year. Someone’s obtained ta finish last in the department; I believe it’s going to be them.

Know Thy Enemy: Toronto Blue Jays