Know Thy Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays

It’s that time of year again, child: time to learn that’s asses we ve

got ta kick. Well known Chinese basic and theorist Sun Tzu as soon as said, If you know the adversary and understand on your own, you need not be afraid the result of a hundred battles. I m not exactly sure what he especially would’ve said regarding the outcome of 162-plus battles, however I’d like to assume it would certainly ve been a similar sentiment.

Over the course of the wintertime, we right here at OTM have actually tried- and will continue to attempt- to keep you great folks in the loophole on that latter part of Tzu’s quote: knowing on your own, or in our case the Boston Red Sox. For the brand-new group, though, we additionally like to dive into the former fifty percent of those words of knowledge: understanding the opponent.

As we relocate more detailed and closer to Opening Day, let’s begin our preview of American League enemies with a trip to Canada: the future 51st state, relying on who you ask.

What’s This Group &

rsquo; s Bargain? In spite of all of the motion in-and-out of the department among the Red Sox and the Yankees; in spite of the proceeded youth movement- and continued dissatisfaction in October- going on in Birdland; and even with the * motions vaguely * everything happening with the Rays company presently in time, I believe you could make the disagreement that the Toronto Blue Jays are the most interesting AL East group going into the 2025 season.by link sixmanrotation.com website

This is a club that had simply recently gone through the movements of their very own youth movement, one that began at the conclusion of the Joey Bats/Josh Donaldson Period of the mid 2010’s. People like first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette rose via the ranch system and ended up being the faces of the group in that time. Acquisitions of professionals such as outfielder George Springer and starting pitcher Kevin Gausman were made in the very early 2020’s in an effort to push the Jays towards the front of the line

in the AL. As a whole, those efforts kinda worked- at the very least in the routine season. Toronto won 90-plus games in both years adhering to the COVID-shortened period (they can be found in 4th location in the 2021 AL East race regardless of posting 91 victories) and also qualified for October baseball in 2023. Absolutely nothing poor happened to them in any of those postseason video games, and everyone lived gladly ever after.

Despite previous successes and the reality that a bona fide All-Star and one of the most preferred gamers in the video game was on the lineup, 2025 noted a huge decline for the Torontonians. Their achilles’ heels were exposed by their American colleagues, and the team took L after L after L after L in 2015. However I’m obtaining averted, enough concerning Drake and OVO.

The Blue Jays dropped from 89 triumphes in 2023 to simply 74 in 2025. That year-to-year drop was even worse than their loss from 89 wins to 76 in between 2016 and 2017, which you could point to as the genesis of this whole reconstruct project. It was heaven Jays’ even worse single year decline because 2004, when they won just 67 video games contrasted to the 86 games they won the year prior. Injuries (Bichette, outfielder Dalton Varsho, and reliever Jordan Romano were all put on the shelf at numerous times in 2025), bullpen troubles (their collective bullpen age of 4.82 was the second-worst in the organization), and a whole number of nothing on crime outside of Vladdy Jr.’s excellent campaign( simply 2 various other Toronto hitters that played in greater than 90 games in 2015 had an OPS+ north of 100, and neither of them are with the team to start 2025) doomed heaven Jays.

That leads us back to the examined positioned from the dive: what, exactly, is this group’

deal? I m resting here creating this on Monday, February 17. It’s Head of state s Day right here in the States, but in’Canada it s Vladdy Expansion Due date Day (I’m uncertain if Canadians obtain work off for that). All Blue Jays gamers have to report to Springtime Training by Tuesday, and Guerrero- who’s about to go into the last year of his agreement with Toronto- has made it clear that he won’t be bargaining an extension when he obtains the training program in Dunedin underway. Bichette could also walk as soon as 2025 is in guides. The Blue Jays have some attracting children who could make waves this season, however they also have aging experts whose performance going forward is doubtful.

Simply put: this team’s bargain is that they re at a crossroads.

Franchise business cornerstones could be gone by the moment we create the 2026 edition of this write-up, however those keystones can rebound (or, in Guerrero’s situation, proceed their warm touch) in the brand-new year. Could they solve back right into the mix in the uber-competitive AL East? Are they looking down the possibility of, to freely price estimate Bono, dreaming it all up once more?

Exactly how Great Are They?

I can’t state’for certain, which s what makes them fascinating. I lean much more towards not actually, all that good but there could be a lot of difference here.

Vladdy’s definitely great, allow s just get that out of the way first. He shattered 30 homers and had 199 hits en route to uploading a. 323/.396/.544 line in 2025. Nearly everything you’d like to see under the hood was elite: hard struck rate, barrel price, strikeout rate, xwOBA, you name it. He’s rather good at hitting round objects with a club.

The remainder of the crime’s top quality leaves … allow s call it room for interpretation, to be charitable. Bichette was generally a job.300 hitter (it was.299, I’ll assemble)before his 2025 period was derailed by injuries. I think he’ll requirement to recover if this team has any desires of playing baseball deep right into the autumn.

Springer has historically been a very solid hitter on top of the schedule, however his OPS (.907,.814,.732,.674) and OPS+ (141, 132, 102, 92) have actually both fallen in each year considering that signing with Toronto in very early 2021, with his quality of call metrics indicating a similar drop-off. Entering his age-35 season, can he turn it around?

Switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander gets in the fold this year after he signed a five-year, $92.5 million agreement with Toronto this winter months. His 44 homers in 2015 went over, and while that output could not be lasting, he makes the schedule simply a bit deeper. The group could really utilize that, particularly if they’re going likewise to depend on the similarity young Will Wagner (the child of soon-to-be-HOFer Billy Wagner, proceeding Toronto’s practice of obtaining the children of ex-MLB players) and catcher Alejandro Kirk (that’s failed to strike 100 OPS+ in the past two periods considering that his 2022 period where he logged a 127 OPS+ en route to an All-Star selection). FanGraphs is predicting those last two men to register wRC+ marks north of 110, so that’s something to be enthusiastic regarding if you’re a Blue Jays follower. I wouldn t expect the same from the newly-acquired infielder Andres Gimenez, however he does provide a really constant handwear cover on protection.

Kevin Gausman projects to be atop the rotation once again in 2025. While his 3.83 period last year definitely wasn’t bad in itself, it was his worst since 2019. He started out less batters on a price basis in 2025 compared to year’s past, his difficult hit price has actually ticked up in the last set of periods, and his anticipated period in 2025 (4.71) was almost a complete run higher than his real ERA. Possibly he’s a man who can endure and out-perform his predicted numbers- I assume he does have that possibility, offered his record and provided the fact that his 21.4% K-rate seems to be an outlier up to this factor. If he misses a lot more bats and strikes much more guys out, he must be great, even if he does surrender some loud contact occasionally. He’s as great a wager as any person to supply significant quantity on the pile, too.

Jose Berrios remains to be one of the weirdest pitchers in MLB. Since 2019, he hasn’t had an expected period better than 4.06, and yet his actual ERA because time has only gone north of an also 4.00 as soon as. His 3.60 ERA last year contrasted to his 4.74 expected period is once again evidence that this video game makes no feeling. He doesn’t strike out enough men and he’s surrendered a damn near 50% tough hit rate in two of his last three seasons. I have no idea how he continues to walk this tight rope, which is specifically why he’s possibly mosting likely to be fine in 2025.

Chris Bassitt goes back to the rotation and is also signed up with by future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, developing the Unction part of the pitching staff.

Bassitt can do a fine work of eating innings, yet similar to Berrios, those quality of get in touch with numbers are not motivating. Scherzer’s obtained some question marks entering his 1 year deal with the group (significantly: can he stay healthy and balanced and can he restrict several of the difficult get in touch with himself?), but at least he’s still generating some swing-and-miss things. Bassitt’s commonly remarkable stroll rate raised to 9.2% in 2025, while his 40.9% ground ball price was the lowest of his occupation. If he can maintain the walks in check, maybe Bassitt can recuperate.

28-year-old Bowden Francis is the wild card in the rotation. In his 140.2 innings lent a hand the bigs, Francis has a sub-1.00 WHIP thanks in huge part to the truth that he hardly ever provides free passes; his 5.4% stroll rate remained in the 89th percentile last season. He already does a great task of restricting tough call, and he can actually raise this rotation if he has the ability to properly release that curveball of his; the run value of his contour fell from 5 in 2023 to -8 in 2025. If he can produce some more activity on that particular damaging pitch, he’d instantly have 3 solid offerings between that, his heater, and his splitter.

Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia have actually been generated (or brought back, in Yimi’s circumstances)to boost the relief throwing. As stated earlier, Toronto is gon na need em. Hoffman has been outstanding in the past 2 years while Garcia obtained the WHIP listed below 1.00 in 2025, yet is that sufficient to improve the back end of the pitching team?

Many Pleasant Gamer: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Easy phone call right here. It s so remarkable that a brand-new generation of followers gets to delight in a right-handed hitting titan called Vladdy. As a baseball fan generally, he’s a blast to enjoy. That doesn’t like to see an absolute mountain of a male hit taters? Least Likable Player: Likewise Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

To address the question that I simply positioned: me, I put on’t like to enjoy an outright mountain of a guy struck taters if it’s versus the Red Sox. Vladdy Jr. has actually been known to do that, however. In his 87 career video games versus Boston, he’s slashing.294/.370/.522 with 17 homers and 75 RBI. Possibly Craig Breslow offers him an agreement next weekend break just so he doesn’t get the chance to slug versus the Red Sox?

Arrange Against the Red Sox

Boston gamers will certainly need to have their keys prepared for a very early period embeded in Toronto running from April 29 with May 1. The Sox head back to the Rogers Centre from September 23 through 25 for the second-to-last collection of the period. On the other hand, heaven Jays pay brows through to Fenway Park between April 7 and 10 in addition to from June 27 via 29. It remains to be seen if any one of those games will certainly be delayed as a result of illumination and resumed weeks later on.

Season Forecast

2025 marks an essential year for the Toronto Blue Jays- a period that can determine the organization’s direction for many years to come. Can they perform at a high degree? Certain, I’d claim it s definitely within the realm of possible results. However if that’s mosting likely to take place, they need a great deal to go right. Vladdy’s obtained ta proceed his hot touch throughout his agreement year. Bichette needs to get better in a contract year of his very own. Other parts of the schedule have to step up. The rotation needs to jointly out-perform their consistently-iffy peripherals. The bullpen, beyond their brand-new acquisitions, needs to tighten up.

It’s feasible that it integrates for&them- baseball s a strange sport- but what are the odds of that happening? Not so fat, I’d state. Mix that together with the fact that the AL East could once again be a lot more like the AL Beast in 2025, and I don’t see an apparent path to 270 for Toronto (wrong country’s electoral system, I recognize).

I wouldn’t say heaven Jays are a bad group- I just don’t believe 2025 is their year. Someone’s got ta coating last in the division; I believe it’s mosting likely to be them.

Know Thy Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays